Last night, six of us gathered around a table to play some poker and, more importantly, draft movies that are released in the next four months. For a third of the year our movies will battle against one-another for the grand prize of $60. Six will enter, one will come out victorious. As your reigning champion, I know only that this time our draft was smarter, our picks better and our rules greatly improved.
Each person gets $100 fake money to bid on a roster of 6 movies. They are also allowed to "pick up" 2 movies during the season. Movies score based on top 10 weekly box office receipts. Pretty simple. With no further ado, the draft.
The Avengers
Winning Bid: $48 to Frank
I had this projected #1 for this season and I was willing to go big to get it. Also, I figured some movies I liked would slip through the cracks, so it wasn't a big deal to spend this kind of money to get it (By the way, this is the same total that Twilight went for last season, but it finished only third overall in our format. I'm hoping for more than that.)
The Hunger Games
Winning Bid: $49 to Pipp
Excited to see the movie. It will do well. Well enough to justify Pipp's big price? I dunno. I see this as a top 5 movie, but it could be anywhere between 1-5 and spending top dollar could come back to bite Joe.
The Lorax
Winning Bid: $20 to Kate
The absolute steal of the draft came third overall. Everybody panicked. We were spending a lot on the first two movies and Kate jumped all over this. I would have bid against her, except she probably would have killed me. I told her I would have gone as high as $32, even already having The Avengers. Anyway, a great pick. Could be the #1 movie of this season and for only 1/5 of her budget.
Battleship
Winning Bid: $31 to Steve
This starts a trend of movies that went for about the price I thought they should. This will do well and the bidding went up accordingly. After all, it's basically Transformers on water.
21 Jump Street
Winning Bid: $23 to Niemi
The only problem with this pick is that Pipp took the bidding up to $22, making Niemi get it for $23 instead of the much more poetic $21.
Men in Black III
Winning Bid: $48 to Steve
Steve already knows where I stand on this. I think he overpaid. I have this as the 7th best movie of the season in part because it will only get five weeks to run before the end of the season and largely because there are a lot of big movies coming out in June (Snow White... Madagascar... Prometheus... Rock of Ages... Abraham Lincoln:Vampire Hunter... Brave) I'd be scared it gets swallowed up after a first week #1. (For the record I have it going 1, 2, 4, 6, 9 in the five weeks)
The Raven
Winning Bid: $24 to Frank
The macabre, murder-mystery thriller starring John Cusack as Edgar Allen Poe looks like a fantastic film. The tricky part is it comes out with three other wide releases. Whichever of those comes out #1 should have a great run with only The Avengers in the next week. I liked the price.
Snow White and the Huntsman
Winning Bid: $27 to Kate
How to value movies with June releases? On the one hand, it's hard to say Kate has much upside here (It will only be in theaters 4 weeks), but then again if it's a sure thing to stay in the top ten it could still be a top 10 movie for the season.
John Carter
Winning Bid: $28 to Allan
Allan finally gets a movie and, as Steve said, it looks like a really stupid one. But as I proved last season with Jack and Jill, bad does not necessarily equal bad at the box office. I like this pick actually. It got a spot during the Super Bowl and people will go because it's Disney.
The Three Stooges
Winning Bid: $15 to Allan
Allan goes back-to-back with good picks. This movie might have a low ceiling, but it is also a pretty safe choice. I'm not sure how the stooges humor will play with our generation, but I can't imagine it doesn't get some play.
Pirates! Band of Misfits
Winning Bid: $17 to Niemi
Another of the four wide releases on April 27 (and by the way, the only one I don't own), I was scared by the stop animation. Adventures of Tintin had different animation, but I can't help but think it'll play similarly, and it pretty well bombed out of last season's Box Office League. So, I was scared, but we'll see. Not a bad price to take a chance.
Wrath of the Titans
Winning Bid: $12 to Pipp
Good price. Low-risk, high-reward. Sequels are a good bet to do alright. Well, except for Happy Feet Two. Come to think of it, no, I don't think this movie will do well, but whatever... not a bad price. OK, I'm already sick of talking about a Titans sequel. Let's move on.
Titanic 3D
Winning Bid: $22 to Kate
I really like Kate's team (and no, I'm not just saying that). I can see why people were scared; Beauty and the Beast and Star Wars: The Phantom Menace have been big disappointments in season 1. But I can't help but think Titanic is different. This is exactly the kind of movie people are waiting for, and it was obviously one of the biggest movies ever on its initial release. I'd expect it to do more in line with The Lion King than the latest 3D flops. Also, it comes out at a good time.
What to Expect When You're Expecting
Winning Bid: $18 to Kate
I told Kate that she could probably get this one cheap, since she's bidding against a bunch of guys. Actually, the price ended up being about right. I expect this movie to open 3rd, but it could very well last 5-6 weeks in the top ten.
A Thousand Words
Winning Bid: $5 to Pipp
For those of you keeping score at home, Pipp now has three March movies... out of 3.
American Reunion
Winning Bid: $7 to Allan
Lesson #1 of Fantasy Box Office: Don't draft with your heart. But I just couldn't even pretend to want this movie. Thanks for taking it, Allan. I feel better for not having it.
The Dictator
Winning Bid: $23 to Niemi
Overpriced for my liking. Has Cohen ever done anything that's a real hit at the box office? Borat was funny, but I don't think it set the box office on fire. This looks worse than that.
Project X
Winning Bid: $20 to Allan
The nice part about drafting movies that come out in the first week of the season is that you know what you've got pretty quickly. If this movie opens #2 it's a good pick, but if any of the February movies stay in front of it, it would be a problem.
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted
Winning Bid: $14 to Pipp
The funny part is that Pipp said he didn't even bring a list of movies that come out in June. Then he bid and won on a movie with a June 8 release date. Three weeks of this movie should still be quite good, though, and I expect it to score 20+ points, which would make it a good value. No upside, though.
Mirror Mirror
Winning Bid: $12 to Allan
The Snow White movies are out in full force. I don't know about this one. Julia Roberts is nice, but Snow White doesn't look, you know, pretty. And that seems kind of important when she's supposed to be fairest of them all, isn't it? Especially when you have two other Snow Whites in Once Upon a Time (Ginnifer Goodwin) and Snow White and the Huntsman (Kristen Stewart) who are attractive (and one of them can even act!).
Rock of Ages
Winning Bid: $4 to Kate
Good, cheap movie. She'll only get two weeks of play so the ceiling is awfully low. It'll be 10-16 points and for the value that's not so bad.
Scary Movie V
Winning Bid: $1 to Allan
Allan's last movie pick is a bit strange. This isn't in wide release and the only question is whether it ever cracks the top ten.
The Cabin in the Woods
Winning Bid: $8 to Niemi
I like this pick. The movie looks interesting; a mash of horror-comedy-thriller-sci-fi-drama-action-mystery flick. I really don't know what to make of it. People may be intrigued and see it, or confused and avoid it.
Chimpanzee
Winning Bid: $8 to Steve
This should be the most successful Earth Day picture in the history of these Disney Nature pics. The problem is that none of them have been very successful. Last year's African Cats opened 6th. This should open top 4, but I don't see it much higher than that and I doubt it lasts more than three weeks in the top ten.
Dark Shadows
Winning Bid: $19 to Niemi
I wanted this one, but the bidding just got too high. This could be a huge surprise movie this season. It opens the week after The Avengers so a #1 seems a bit too much to hope for, but realistically opening at #2 is a possibility. If it can stay in the top ten 5-6 weeks this could be an absolute steal.
The Lucky One
Winning Bid: $9 to Kate
The moral of the story is that Kate will draft all Nicholas Sparks novels-turned-to-movies. This is probably about the right price and a very safe pick, as long as women still exist on the planet come April 20. If so, she'll be fine.
The Five-Year Engagement
Winning Bid: $7 to Frank
The second movie I drafted that comes out April 27. It's like handcuffing your Running Back in Fantasy Football, and at a safe price.
Iron Sky
Winning Bid: $1 to Niemi
Worth a flier. Why not? Steve hit one on the head with Chronicle last season and this is similar to that pick. Joe will be hoping for similar production.
Bullet to the Head
Winning Bid: $5 to Pipp
Eh, don't like this so much. Filling out the roster, I get it, but I don't see this doing well.
Silent House
Winning Bid: $5 to Frank
Horror movies are just safe picks (at least ones in wide release). Plus, this is an early season release. It won't open higher than third, but four weeks of play in the top ten aren't out of the question.
Chernobyl Diaries
Winning Bid: $1 to Steve
Steve trying to channel another Chronicle pick. Who knows? There's almost no info on this flick, but it's supposed to be a wide release. Could be a steal.
Casa de mi Padre
Winning Bid: $6 to Pipp
Wow. No idea what to make of this. Somebody had to draft it, right? Will anybody see this? Will I see this? How can I not? And if I'm compelled to see Will Ferrell with Spanish subtitles won't other people? I'm already regretting not bidding on this movie. And yet, who the hell knows?
Prometheus
Winning Bid: $1 to Frank
Three weeks of top ten production for $1? I'll take it. 20 points is possible. 17-18 points is more realistic and would be just fine.
Safe
Winning Bid: $15 to Frank
It was just Steve and I, and he nominated the movie at the top of my list. So, I ended up with three April 27 releases. I feel good about that because not much comes out after it; just The Avengers the next week (which I also own). Could I have four in the top five for two weeks in a row? A definite possibility. The points are racking up in my head already.
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter
Winning Bid: $1 to Steve
Brave
Winning Bid: $1 to Steve
I'll combine these two last picks because they have a single, unified problem: They only get one week of play time. One week. That means a ceiling of 10 points each. 19 points between the two of them. That's a problem, as much as Steve wants to suggest otherwise. I would have taken a flier on Think Like a Man or Seeking Justice at this point, but that's what the waiver wire's for!
Good luck!
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