There are some small things that just make life more fun. I'm not a huge gambler, but putting a few dollars on something that's worth the entertainment value alone is cool with me. This is the best way I can explain the allure of our Fantasy Box Office league--a league designed to draft movies that are going to be successful at the box office.
The general idea of the league is this: get movies that people go see and then you will score points over a four month period--November to February in this case. You get 10 points for a #1 grossing movie in a given week, 9 points for #2, down to 1 point for #10. There were five of us and for this first draft we decided to stay small-scale: we drafted only six movies each. Each of us was given a $100 in fake auction cash to spend on our six movies and whoever bid the most got the flick.
The following is a pick-by-pick account of our first draft.
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 1
To Pipp for $48
I started off the nominations with this, curious to see who would overspend. The way our league works means that this will in all likelihood be the number 1 movie, but I figured somebody was likely to spend too much. In the end, the price was just about right.
The Descendants
To Pipp for $10
Pipp threw us for a curve on this one. He probably should have just nominated it for $1 because there was absolutely no interest. This is the only movie drafted with a limited release. At this point in the draft I started to salivate at the deals that were coming if this movie went for $10!
Happy Feet Two
To Jeph for $35
A bit overpriced for my liking. This movie opens against Twilight with The Muppets and Hugo coming in the next week. It will stay in the top 10 for awhile but I can't see it staying top 5 for more than three weeks and at this price I was happy to pass.
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol
To Kate for $30
I was glad to see Kate get involved and decided keenly to not bid against her. This is a good, fair price for a movie that will do well, though it goes up against some stiff competition at the end of December.
War Horse
To Kate for $20
This is a classic case of taking the "hometown team." Kate wants this movie because it's about a horse and she'll want to go see it. She overpaid for it, in my opinion, but I'm glad she's content with movies she could actually enjoy... some of which I certainly don't have.
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
To Frank for $35
I'm not going to lie: I needed this movie. It's going to do very well, and I told myself before the draft I wanted one of the three top movies. Twilight didn't happen and I wasn't going to bid against Kate for Mission Impossible. This is a sure thing at a reasonable price.
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
To Pipp for $37
A woeful overbid in my opinion. Pipp now had three movies and $5 left to spend. Worse still, I wasn't going to spend more than $10 (at most) for this movie. It's opening against Mission Impossible, The Adventures of Tintin and War Horse, with Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks in its second week. Mark it down: this movie never goes higher than 5th on the weekly charts. Still, I'm going to see it, and I'm going to like it. (A clear case where a movie will be much better than the number of people seeing it suggests)
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
To Steve for $25
Steve needed a top-rate movie, having been shutout to this point, and this was about what was left. Really this was about what he should have paid for this, so not much to see here.
The Muppets
To Kate for $25
Again Kate goes for a movie she'll like, but this time she got it for the right price. It has an outside shot of opening #1 (though it's Twilight's second week), and it should stay in the top 10 until about Christmas.
We Bought a Zoo
To Kate for $12
I don't buy that this movie will do well, even though it's been promoted like crazy. I would have thrown out a flier on $1 or $2 so I consider this a little spendy, but with the feel-good strategy in place this was a must-have for Kate.
Red Tails
To Frank for $5
I made a bit of a miscalculation here. Now don't get me wrong, I'm very happy to have this movie for a paltry $5, but I probably could have done even better. There was a movie I had rated higher which went undrafted (we'll get to that later). Still, I think this movie will be successful and has a decent chance to be a top 3 movie for a couple of weeks in the desolate January movie-scape.
New Years Eve
To Jeph for $15
It's hard to draft a movie that looks this bad, so props to Jeph for pulling the trigger. I say this because it has bankability, a cavalcade of stars, and you know it will do well because people are dumb and go to movies that have a bunch of people they recognize. This is such a movie and I think it opens #1 before quickly falling off when word gets out that it is no good (and Sherlock Holmes and Alvin come out next week).
Hugo
To Steve for $9
I know Steve was excited to get this at this price, but honestly I'd rather have Red Tails. There just isn't that much upside here. I think it opens at #4 and stays there for two weeks before slowly sliding down. That said, this is another movie I'd like to go see.
Arthur Christmas
To Jeph for $7
I almost goofed and drafted this. I was very, very, very thankful Jeph came back over the top. Really, this should have been a $1-3 movie. Honestly, I still don't know why I bid $5 on it. Seriously. I must have had a brief stroke or something.
Big Miracle
To Frank for $13
Thankfully, I recovered quickly and got the steal of the draft. Even though this league only runs through the end of February that will be just enough for Big Miracle to have four scoring weeks. I don't think it drops out of the top five in that time. If it doesn't, I have this as the fifth highest scoring movie (behind Twilight, Sherlock Holmes, Mission Impossible and the Adventures of Tintin); for $13 that's a steal.
The Vow
To Kate for $10
I was stoked for Kate to get this. It has Rachel McAdams and Channing Tatum and it opens before Valentine's Day. Can you say assured #1? The only problem is that it only has three weeks in this format. Still, a bargain at this price.
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
To Jeph for $6
Honestly, not much to say here. Looks like a great movie, but I doubt it does well at the box office.
Ghost Rider Spirit of Vengeance
To Steve for $15
See Tinker Tailor, except the exact opposite. This will be bad, but people will be desperate for movies at the end of February and this is all you've got... but we've only got two weeks of it and Steve will only just get his money's worth if it finishes #1 both weeks, which (unfortunately for American intelligence) it probably will.
The Adventures of Tintin
To Jeph for $26
I was happy to at least push the bidding up on this one. Still, I can't help but feel that Jeph might have gotten a very good deal here. Tintin seems likely to open at #3, but I wouldn't be shocked if it stays in the top 10 for a lengthy six weeks just behind Mission: Impossible all the time. Considering MI went for $30, this is a good price.
Joyful Noise
To Kate for $3
Not a bad way to fill out her roster. This is a solid choice. People will see it because it opens in January and it's going up against not much, well... except Beauty and the Beast in 3D...
Immortals
To Frank for $5
I have to be honest. I wasn't looking to get this movie, but for this price? Absolutely! Especially when...
Jack and Jill
To Frank for $6
...I can handicap the Immortals pick with another movie opening that week. I should have #1 and #2 this first week and even though I got mocked a little because Twilight and Happy Feet Two come out the next week I think there will be some staying power here (even if I wouldn't be caught dead seeing this movie). For the record, I have both of these flicks staying in the top 10 for five weeks. If so, this is a steal.
Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 3D
To Steve for $3
Now this is a wild card pick. Are people going to go see pod racing in 3D? Or are they going to remember that this is one of the crappy new Star Wars?
J Edgar
To Jeph for $2
It strikes me now that Jeph has an odd collection of movies: the animated (Happy Feet, Tintin, and Arthur Christmas), the likely awful (New Years Eve), and the Oscar contenders (Tinker Tailor and J Edgar). What's more interesting, however, is that all of his movies come out before New Years. So basically he's going to be done scoring by the middle of January. We'll see if that hurts him...
Underworld Awakening
To Frank for $36
This is a case where budgeting better may have produced better results, but the truth is that I was so excited to get Immortals and Jack and Jill at the prices I did that I had $36 left to spend on a single movie and this was the top of my list. Once again, I handicap Red Tails with another movie coming out that weekend. Just watch Haywire finish #1 that weekend... wait no, that won't happen.
Man on a Ledge
To Pipp for $1
Wait, Pipp got this for $1? Seriously. Where was Steve and his $48 to stop this? Good things come to those who wait, I suppose, and Pipp got a serious steal here. The end of January is a tough time to parse, but if I were to bet I guess this opens #1 and could score until the end of the competition.
Chronicle
To Steve for $3
Hmm... not what I would have picked here with some of the choices still on the board, but this should score alright.
The Woman in Black
To Pipp for $1
Definitely a wildcard. Daniel Radcliffe could be a draw, but there seem to be many safer picks still on the board.
Beauty and the Beast 3D
To Steve for $45
OK, so Steve didn't budget well, but this is a great last pick. Tremendous upside. If it has similar success to the Lion King re-release we're looking at a top five overall pick -OR- it could be in theaters a week...
Iron Lady
To Pipp for $1
This is questionable to me mainly because of what is left on the board. Contraband will get points. It might even be a #1 movie. This movie won't. Seriously. Also, we left The Grey and Safe House out of the league, as well as This Means War and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.
If there's one trend here it's that we're overpricing current movies at the cost of January and February flicks. There's always inherent risk in going for those movies further out on the horizon. For one, the release date could get pushed back (not good) or they might just be a crappy movie, but at the price some of those went (or didn't go at all), there is tremendous value left on the table.
So that's it. I'll post some results as we go along. If anybody is interested in joining the league starting in March let me know. We'll take all comers (within reason), and look forward to the next season of March-May!
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